Welcome to Stoic Snippets,
The track that is short in time,
But not in depth.
You may not be aware of this,
But there are a host of biases the media actively uses against you to make you believe a narrative that they benefit from.
They paint a picture of a world that is extremely dangerous,
Where planes crash regularly,
Where you are at risk whenever you leave your home from an earthquake,
A shark attack,
Or even a terrorist attack.
But they also paint a picture of a world where you have a real shot of choosing the right meme coin,
Winning the lottery,
Or getting the life of your favorite Hollywood star.
In reality,
As individuals,
We have a terrible track record of keeping an accurate tally of any of these things,
Of how many planes actually crash,
Of the odds of being attacked by a shark.
We have no idea how to gauge the chances we will be a famous actor,
Or win the lottery,
Or win big with trading.
And this makes us perfect prey for those selling things like insurances,
Lottery tickets,
The latest course on how to trade crypto,
Or even buy the latest gadget,
Cologne,
Or clothing a celebrity tells you is good for you.
As a neuroscientist and psychologist,
I can tell you what is going on here.
And you know,
It's not totally bad.
What's happening is,
You are well aware that you cannot process all the information in the world.
It's just not possible,
And it's not feasible.
It's not a good use of your time.
So instead,
What you and your brain do is conspire to make the world a little bit more simple.
And in order to do that,
You develop things known as heuristics,
Mental shortcuts to understand the world.
One of those shortcuts is to listen to other people that seem to be in the know.
And that's where things like the media can be quite nefarious.
We assume they know better,
And that they wouldn't lie to us,
Or they wouldn't get things wrong.
But that's just simply not the case.
So we have to be careful of these shortcuts.
We have to be careful of taking things at face value.
And that's something the Stoics were always telling us.
Be careful of what the world tells us.
Think about things critically.
Now,
It's not just this foregoing of our better judgment to those on the TV.
It's also other heuristics,
What are known as biases,
Particularly availability bias.
Now,
I want to talk to you about three distinct biases,
So you can look out for them and make sure that you are making choices in your own best interests,
And that are based on real good data.
As I've just described,
There are many ways in which we cannot actually calculate the odds of things and instead use these shortcuts.
But we have to be careful of how much weight we give to each one of these shortcuts.
And that sounds a little bit confusing.
It'll all make sense in a second while I explain to you these three potentially massive biases that you may fall prey to.
So listen up.
Here we go.
Number one,
Recency bias.
If you have just heard about something,
You are way more likely to ascribe a weight or frequency to it.
If you've just heard about a plane crashing,
Then you're more likely to fear flying in the near future.
Of course,
You will ignore the statistics that tell you driving to work is 15 times more dangerous.
Why?
Because you've just heard about a plane crash,
Which makes it feel like it's far nearer to you and more dangerous to you.
And the news doesn't really report on car crashes because they were so normal and boring.
The result is,
We think that flying is somehow more dangerous than driving.
Not because it is,
But because we hear about it.
We see it on the news.
Very interesting stat is that just after 9-11,
A lot more people chose to drive than to fly.
And as a result,
Car accidents went through the roof.
People used recency bias and thought that flying was very dangerous,
When in fact,
That just wasn't the case.
So watch out for recency bias.
Just because you've heard about something recently doesn't mean it is happening more than usual or is more dangerous than anything else that is out there.
Number two,
Vividness bias.
Now,
This just refers to the vividly we imagine something happening weighs far heavier on us than the odds of it actually happening.
Now,
Falling victim to a terrorist attack is very vivid and it strikes a lot of fear into us.
Dying by smoking related illness or obesity or not exercising or something that is kind of boring and long winded doesn't seem to have the same fear factor.
But you are far more likely,
Of course,
To die of obesity or smoking related illnesses than you are a terrorist attack.
Just because something is vivid and it's scary doesn't mean it's more likely to happen.
So be careful of this too.
All right,
Last one,
Frequency bias.
Now,
This is simply the case that if you hear about something over and over again,
You're very likely to think that it happens all the time,
Even if it's not the case.
It's something we see a lot happening in the media.
It's hard to get through a week,
For instance,
Without hearing about someone who has won the lottery or bought the right crypto at the right price.
And you could come to the conclusion that it must happen all the time.
And you are right,
It does happen all the time.
The crucial element though is how many people are playing the lottery versus how many people actually win.
And the answer is pretty astounding.
You have a 1 in 14 million chance of winning the lottery.
And if you're a day trader,
You have a 1% chance of being a winner on any given day.
The odds of someone winning each of these bets is almost certain.
The odds of you winning the bet is almost zero.
So be careful of just hearing about things happening a lot and assuming that you have a good chance of winning or that you are likely to be part of that winning group.
As Socrates said,
You should know thyself.
And knowing these biases are going to help you be smarter and make the right decisions.
Epictetus went further and said that no man is free who is not a master of themselves.
So master yourself by knowing about these biases and practice looking out for them.
Marcus Aurelius would like to add to this too as he warned us that there are some things that will make you dance like a puppet.
Don't be a puppet.
Think critically about the world and don't let advertising,
News cycles or celebrities stop you making the choices that are best for you.
Good luck out there.
Now if you're looking to make a good choice for you,
Then be sure to check out my retreats.
I'd love to see you in person where we can discuss these things in a beautiful and luxurious environment with people that are just like you.
